Jack Hardcastle

John Edwards is holding out on backing one of the two front-runners for the Democratic nomination, despite having dropped out of the race himself.

There’s a story in the Post today about how some of Edwards’s delegates are swinging towards Obama. If I understand it correctly, the pledged delegates belong to Edwards until he “gives” them to another candidate. The only reason I can come up with for why he has not already done this is a desire to be named as a running mate for whomever comes out on top.

Ignore for a second the fact that I think Obama will win the nomination. Let’s apply a little bit of game theory to this situation.

The best and worst case scenarios for each of four different outcomes: Edwards backs Obama and he wins, Obama and he loses, Hillary and she wins, Hillary and she loses.

If Edwards backs Hillary and she wins, she’s not going to make him her Veep. He doesn’t give her any boost, anywhere, and brings no political capital to the table. If he backs her and she loses, Obama probably won’t pick him.

If he backs Obama and he wins, he’s got a pretty fair chance of being named Obama’s running-mate. Say 50/50. Obama will not ask Hillary to run with him. This is a 100% guaranteeable fact. If he backs Obama and he loses, he still won’t be Hillary’s running-mate.

All that being said, Edwards has the power to give Obama another state worth of delegates (26 at current count) and he brings his “brand” onto the Obama bandwagon, giving the candidate a small but welcome boost.

What are you waiting for, man? You know the right thing to do, so do it!